--- title: "The CAVU Compass: Ceasefire at the Brink" description: March Retail Sales land April 21 -- the day before the ceasefire expires -- making the timing of this data release unusually consequential. We expect control group retail sales (ex-autos, gas, building materials) to rise +0.3%, driven by the generous 2025 tax refund season, with average refunds running more than 10% above year-ago levels. The headline figure will be misleadingly strong, perhaps +1.3% to +1.5%, because gasoline prices inflated the gas-station line item. The number to watch is the control group. A reading above +0.3% means the consumer was holding in March despite the energy shock; below +0.2% signals the energy drain was already overwhelming underlying spending before the IRGC reversal raised the risk of another oil price surge. Bank of America's internal card data for March showed per-household spending up 4.3% year-over-year, with discretionary categories ex-gas still growing at 3.6% YoY, consistent with a resilient consumer, at least through March. April will be a harder test. The first full month of post-blockade energy prices, combined with the IRGC reversal and related market volatility, will show up in the April data released in May. Gasoline prices have fallen modestly in April, however, which may provide some modest relief to consumers' psyche and wallets. Do not be distracted by the headline Tuesday. The Census Bureau delayed March Retail Sales until April 21. The cleanest measure of consumer health is hours away. image: https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_01.jpg --- [![CAVU](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Cavu_November_2021/images/CAVU-MainLogo.png "CAVU")](https://www.cavusecurities.com/) - Impact - [CAVU in the Community](https://www.cavusecurities.com/impact) - Cash Solutions - [Money Market Funds](https://www.cavusecurities.com/money-market-funds) - [Money Market Portal](https://www.cavusecurities.com/money-market-portal) - [Distribution Services](https://www.cavusecurities.com/distribution-services) - [Capital Markets](https://www.cavusecurities.com/capital-markets) - [Team](https://www.cavusecurities.com/team) - [News & Insights](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights) - [Contact](https://www.cavusecurities.com/contact) [Back to News & Insights](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights) # The CAVU Compass: Ceasefire at the Brink - April 22, 2026 ![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_01](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_01.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_01.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_02](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_02.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_02.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_03](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_03.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_03.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_04](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_04.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_04.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_05](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_05.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_05.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_06](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_06.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_06.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_07](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_07.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_07.jpg) ![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_08](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_08.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_08.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_09](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_09.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_09.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_10](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_10.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_10.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_11](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_11.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_11.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_12](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_12.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_12.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_13](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_13.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_13.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_14](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_14.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_14.jpg)![2026-04-19_CAVU Compass_Page_15](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_15.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-04-19_CAVU%20Compass_Page_15.jpg)   - [Privacy Policy](https://www.cavusecurities.com/privacy-policy) - [Terms & Conditions of Use](https://www.cavusecurities.com/terms-conditions) - [Business Continuity](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hubfs/Cavu_November_2021/pdf/CAVU-Securities-LLC-Business-Continuity-Planning.pdf) - [Contact](https://www.cavusecurities.com/contact) © 2022 CAVU Securities, LLC. 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