---
title: "The CAVU Compass: Sticking With Our Touch and go scenario"
description: "Outlook: Growth Holding, Recession Risks Persist \nThe U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, defying the cautious outlooks that dominated the summer. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently tracks 3.3% for Q3—a sharp improvement from earlier forecasts near 2% and well above private estimates that initially carried a “1-handle.” Our own forecast is more measured, with Q3 at 2.6% and Q4 at 2.2%. For 2025, we project 1.9% growth, fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter, rising to 2.5% in 2026 as interest rates ease and fiscal tailwinds take hold."
---

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# [The CAVU Compass: Sticking With Our Touch and go scenario](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights/the-cavu-compass-sticking-with-our-touch-and-go-scenario)

 Written by [Cavu](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights/author/cavu) | Sep 26, 2025 3:38:11 PM

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[View full post](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights/the-cavu-compass-sticking-with-our-touch-and-go-scenario)

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