--- title: "The CAVU Compass: Strait out of Hormuz" description: "THE MACRO BACKDROP: THE REFUND AND THE REPRIEVE \nA month ago we argued the war piece of the economy was beginning to take a back seat to the cyclical piece. June’s data delivered the evidence, and July’s geopolitics promptly complicated it. The June CPI fell 0.4%, as gasoline handed back 9.7% and the annual rate dropped to 3.5% from May’s 4.2%. Producer prices fell 0.3%, with the annual rate easing for the first time in five months. Real average hourly earnings jumped 0.8% in June and turned positive over the year for the first time since the THE CAVU COMPASS | Monthly macroeconomic insights and market commentary by CAVU Securities and Piedmont Crescent Capital war began. The imported tax we have described all year is being partially refunded, and the refund is landing first on the households that paid the most regressive share of it." image: https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_01.jpg --- [![CAVU](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/Cavu_November_2021/images/CAVU-MainLogo.png "CAVU")](https://www.cavusecurities.com/) - Impact - [CAVU in the Community](https://www.cavusecurities.com/impact) - Cash Solutions - [Money Market Funds](https://www.cavusecurities.com/money-market-funds) - [Money Market Portal](https://www.cavusecurities.com/money-market-portal) - [Distribution Services](https://www.cavusecurities.com/distribution-services) - [Capital Markets](https://www.cavusecurities.com/capital-markets) - [Team](https://www.cavusecurities.com/team) - [News & Insights](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights) - [Contact](https://www.cavusecurities.com/contact) [Back to News & Insights](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/news-insights) # The CAVU Compass: Strait out of Hormuz - July 22, 2026 ![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_01](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_01.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_01.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_02](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_02.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_02.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_03](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_03.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_03.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_04](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_04.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_04.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_05](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_05.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_05.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_06](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_06.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_06.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_07](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_07.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_07.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_08](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_08.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_08.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_09](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_09.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_09.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_10](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_10.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_10.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_11](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_11.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_11.jpg)![2026-07-20_The CAVU Compass - Strait out of Hormuz_Page_12](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_12.jpg?width=1700&height=2200&name=2026-07-20_The%20CAVU%20Compass%20-%20Strait%20out%20of%20Hormuz_Page_12.jpg)   - [Privacy Policy](https://www.cavusecurities.com/privacy-policy) - [Terms & Conditions of Use](https://www.cavusecurities.com/terms-conditions) - [Business Continuity](https://blog.cavusecurities.com/hubfs/Cavu_November_2021/pdf/CAVU-Securities-LLC-Business-Continuity-Planning.pdf) - [Contact](https://www.cavusecurities.com/contact) © 2022 CAVU Securities, LLC. 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